Bitcoin: Price Action Emotional Cycles

Believe it or not the price of Bitcoin has nearly doubled over the past 11 months. The price has gone from a low of $15,800 USD in Nov 2022 to the recent high in Oct 2023 of $31,300. If these price points don’t say emotional roller coaster I don’t know what does. The good news is price action can be correlated to 13 distinct emotional stages. These stages are Hope → Optimism → Belief → Thrill → Euphoria → Complacency → Anxiety → Denial → Panic → Capitulation → Anger → Depression → Disbelief.

If we take a look at the 11 months prior to the previous BTC halving event which would be the last 6 months of 2019 and the first 5 months of 2020, BTC remained below the major $10,300 resistance level for 8 months before retracing in March 2020 during the COVID pandemic. The ascent to $10,300 during that period represented the Disbelief phase of that cycle.

As mentioned in our previous post, the next BTC halving is scheduled for April 2024. If we reference the 2020 Disbelief stage we can assume a correlation between that cycle and the upcoming BTC halving even if the price of Bitcoin remains below $31,800 on higher time frames.

This may be a good time to pack your bags so you can take off with Bitcoin as price ascends into unknown territory in the Hope, Optimism, & Belief emotional stages given current economic uncertainty with traditional finance and the slow and steady adoption of Defi.

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